World will struggle to meet oil demand

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas

Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00

Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de-mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0830883c-a55b-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html?ncli...

as those in power have neither the wisdom nor the selflessness to allow a natural social evolution to occur peacefully.

I hope that we can make the coming transition as peaceful as possible, but I think it quite likely that many of the sociopaths in control will not go without a fight and will try to get us to fight amongst ourselves, as that is the game they have played so successfully throughout history.

This is why educating the public about the history of false flag events is critical and why the 9/11 truth movement is at the vanguard of this great awakening.

Love is a verb, brothers and sisters, let's get busier!

The truth shall set us free. Love is the only way forward.

Lending institutions won't start lending again until the malinvestments still in the economic pipeline are wiped off the books. The current price structure in the economy (prices for labor, capital, resources) is based on these malinvestments. Only when these malinvestments are cleared, and the "real" price structure is then revealed, only then will lending institutions begin to lend. With those malinvestments obscuring what prices in the economy should be, it is not at all surprising to learn that lending institutions refuse to lend money based on "false" prices; prices based on the false interest rate signals that the Federal Reserve arbitrarily comes up with.

Dean Jackson/webmaster www.DNotice.org
Washington, DC

Hello, everyone! The talk you are about to hear is the result of a lengthy process on my part. My specialty is in thinking about and, unfortunately, predicting collapse. My method is based on comparison: I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and, since I am also familiar with the details of the situation in the United States, I can make comparisons between these two failed superpowers.

I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn't yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.

I am an engineer, and so I naturally tended to look for physical explanations for this process, as opposed to economic, political, or cultural ones. It turns out that one could come up with a very good explanation for the Soviet collapse by following energy flows. What happened in the late 80s is that Russian oil production hit an all-time peak. This coincided with new oil provinces coming on stream in the West - the North Sea in the UK and Norway, and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska - and this suddenly made oil very cheap on the world markets. Soviet revenues plummeted, but their appetite for imported goods remained unchanged, and so they sank deeper and deeper into debt. What doomed them in the end was not even so much the level of debt, but their inability to take on further debt even faster. Once international lenders balked at making further loans, it was game over.

What is happening to the United States now is broadly similar, with certain polarities reversed. The US is an oil importer, burning up 25% of the world's production, and importing over two-thirds of that. Back in mid-90s, when I first started trying to guess the timing of the US collapse, the arrival of the global peak in oil production was scheduled for around the turn of the century. It turned out that the estimate was off by almost a decade, but that is actually fairly accurate as far as such big predictions go. So here it is the high price of oil that is putting the brakes on further debt expansion. As higher oil prices trigger a recession, the economy starts shrinking, and a shrinking economy cannot sustain an ever-expanding level of debt. At some point the ability to finance oil imports will be lost, and that will be the tipping point, after which nothing will ever be the same.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47157

Orlov also has a book out "Reinventing Collapse:The Soviet Example and American Prospects"